Study: Baltimore’s Group Violence Reduction Strategy reduced homicides and shootings by a quarter in Western District

The anti-violence program Baltimore launched in early 2022 appears to be playing a role in reducing homicides and shootings, according to preliminary data from an academic study of the pilot program in the police department’s Western District.

The historically violent district experienced a roughly one-quarter reduction in homicides and shootings in the first 18 months of the city’s Group Violence Reduction Strategy, University of Pennsylvania researchers found.

The university’s Crime and Justice Policy Lab analyzed data from the district since the initiative’s start in January 2022and found it was “highly likely” hat tthe program caused the decline in violence. The greatest benefits came in the program’s first year, according to a five-page research overview provided to The Baltimore Sun.

The researchers found no evidence that crime was displaced to neighboring police districts and no evidence that Baltimore Police’s GVRS work led to an uptick in overall arrests or arrests for minor offenses.

The early findings, researchers wrote, “underscore the potential of GVRS and similar strategies to reduce gun violence, while avoiding the collateral consequences of mass arrests.”

GVRS led to 60 fewer homicide and nonfatal shooting victims, according to a one-page evaluation by the researchers.

The Crime and Justice Policy Lab study confirms what Mayor Brandon Scott’s administration has said about the promise of the Western District pilot. More recently, however, planned expansions to additional police districts have been delayed. Officials have attributed those schedule changes to the impacts of last July’s redistricting and the need to be cautious about overstretching the program.

GVRS last year moved into the Southwestern District, but planned expansions to the Central, Eastern and Southern police districts did not take place in 2023 as originally scheduled. The GVRS work began last month in the Central District.

The University of Pennsylvania researchers wrote that expanding GVRS “poses challenges,” and specifically noted staffing shortages within the police department. It called for “further investment and continued focus” from leaders, given the “potential benefits in terms of public safety.”

The strategy targets the people most at risk of becoming victims or perpetrators of gun violence. Those people are then contacted by city and community leaders, and eligible individuals are offered referrals to service providers Roca and Youth Advocate Programs, including employment support and mentorship. Meanwhile, police target enforcement efforts at those who continue to engage in violence.

In first 18 months of the program in the Western District, 175 people were contacted and 90 of the eligible people at the highest risk of gun violence involvement accepted services. Meanwhile, police made 144 “focused” arrests, the University of Pennsylvania report found.

The researchers determined the roughly one-quarter drop in homicides and shootings over that period by calculating what crime rates in the Western District would have been without GVRS. To do so, they created a comparison group based on other areas of Baltimore with crime trends similar to the Western District.

The UPenn analysis also found a roughly one-third drop in carjackings, alongside little change in assaults and robberies in the Western District attributable to GVRS.

Future studies, according to the five-page summary, will explore the program’s cost-effectiveness and outcomes for the targeted individuals, namely whether there were changes in behavior by those who received services or enforcement by police.

The Crime and Justice Policy Lab is providing technical assistance and support “for all aspects of implementation” of the city’s GVRS program, according to its website.

Baltimore last year saw a roughly 20% drop in year-over-year homicides, which fell below 300 killings for the first time since 2014. Scott has said that decline is a testament to his team’s comprehensive violence reduction strategy and its GVRS efforts.

Just more than 130 people received services in the Western and Southwestern districts in 2023, city officials said in January. Those participants have seen a revictimization rate of 4.3% and a recidivism rate of 5%, according to Stefanie Mavronis, the director of the Mayor’s Office of Neighborhood Safety and Engagement.

The Scott administration’s GVRS work is Baltimore’s third attempt at such a strategy. Officials previously said they’ve looked into past attempts’ mistakes, and pointed in part to quick expansion that overburdened the initiative.

This story will be updated.

©2024 Baltimore Sun. Visit baltimoresun.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.